Of All the Responses Modi Can Come Up With to Pahalgam, Plunging India Into War is the Worst     

If Modi and Amit Shah ever needed proof that the Kashmiris are not rebels or separatists but only want the full democratic rights and trust that other states of India enjoy, they have all the evidence they need or could desire right now.

The Modi government’s immediate reaction to the inhuman slaughter of 26 civilians at Pahalgam by terrorists who shot them after determining their religions, was to disregard the Indus Waters Treaty and threaten to hold up the flow of water in the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers. This was understandable. However, on being told that this was not feasible to any significant extent, the prime minister has given a free hand to the armed forces to fashion a military response to the Pahalgam outrage. This is not understandable, for it could lead to an unimaginable disaster not only for India, but the whole of South Asia and its neighbours. This is the threat of a nuclear war. 

This is a real possibility because Pakistan is a state on the verge of both bankruptcy and disintegration. As of the end of January 2025, its trade deficit in the previous 12 months was USD 6 billion, and its balance of payments deficit was USD 3.3 billion. Its foreign exchange reserves were at USD 14 billion.  

When the end of the Afghan war also ended US military payments to Pakistan, it was bailed out by doles from the Arab states and infrastructure investment by China. At the same time, Pakistan was being made increasingly aware that this could not go on forever. It is at this crisis point that the Baloch Liberation Army attacked the Jaffar Express on March 11, 2025, selectively killing 21 non-Balochis and five security personnel before being overwhelmed.  

Whether right or wrong, Pakistan believes that India has been funding the Baloch liberation movement since the 2000s, or even earlier. It also suspects – perhaps believes – that under Narendra Modi, with Ajit Doval as his national security advisor, the R&AW has become far more aggressive and reckless than it was before. So, locked as it is in its own battle with civil society in Pakistan, after the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, the Pakistan army’s nerve seems to have snapped. 

Not only has it accused India of encouraging, and perhaps financing, the attack on the train but it has – in the Indian government’s eyes – sought to take revenge by killing, perhaps not coincidentally, an equal number of Hindu tourists in Kashmir.

This singular act of unimaginable cruelty shows how completely the Pakistan army’s nerve has snapped. Pakistan’s generals surely know how badly this attack will hurt Kashmir’s economy, and destroy the lives of the lakhs of Kashmiri Muslims, who prepare their taxis, shikaras, hotels and houseboats, and their homes to receive the annual inflow of visitors. Thousands of them now face insolvency and ruin.

However, the Kashmiri peoples’ reaction to the outrage at Pahalgam has gone far beyond such material considerations. Nothing expresses their anger and grief  better than the speech Mirwaiz Umar Farooq,  gave to his vast congregation at the Jamia Masjid in Srinagar on Friday, April 25. The Mirwaiz is the most influential religious leader in Kashmir and chairman of the Hurriyet Conference. Here’s the full text:

“Today, after more than one month, the authorities allowed me to come to Jama Masjid. I am repeatedly barred from delivering the Friday sermon and offering prayers here, which, while being condemnable, is cruel to me and to all those who come here to listen to the sermon, and to all Muslims of the valley who are deeply upset by such measures. I once again ask the authorities to desist from pursuing the approach of bans and bars.

Sadly, during this time, we had to witness a terrifying incident which has left our hearts bleeding. The manner in which a carnage was carried out—more than two dozen people killed after ascertaining their identities and in front of their families—is shocking and chilling beyond belief. We strongly condemn it. Who better can understand the pain and grief of loss to the families of those affected than a people who have suffered it for decades and still continue to. Today, as I say this, as per the Islamic calendar, it is the 36th martyrdom anniversary of my father, Shaheed-e-Millat Mirwaiz Molvi Mohammad Farooq, and seventy others who lost their lives on that tragic day. 

 Our hearts go out to the families who will never see their loved ones again, and our prayers are with them. We also pray for the speedy recovery of those injured. Kashmiris have always opened their hearts and homes to outsiders, especially tourists. Known for our hospitality to visitors, people of Kashmir once again upheld the tradition of outreach, help, and humanity in this distressing time. Being left helpless, locals helped those at the spot to flee, even at the risk to their own lives, in which pony operator Adil Hussain lost his life. We pay homage to this brave young Kashmiri who gave the ultimate sacrifice of life while saving that of others. Others rushed the injured, some even on their backs, trekking miles to hospitals. Kashmiris, in every manner, reached out to help the distressed tourists, as can be seen in videos where tourists are thanking them for opening up their homes to them, giving them food and free taxi rides to airports and other destinations, and even providing emotional support. People observed a complete shutdown, held spontaneous and silent protests, and candlelight vigils in memory of those killed in this horrific manner. 

The people of Kashmir send a strong message of their total disapproval of such actions and their solidarity and sympathy with the bereaved by standing shoulder to shoulder with them. Yet a large section of mainstream media, with its communal rhetoric of hate directed against Kashmiris, has made Kashmiris across India vulnerable, forcing hundreds to leave cities and towns, especially the students, causing great distress to their families and to all of us. I appeal to the concerned governments in different states of India to ensure the safety of our students and all other Kashmiris.

I also ask the authorities to allow me to visit the injured in hospitals and to the house of Adil Hussain to pay my condolences to the family of this brave heart. Prior to prayers, in solidarity with the bereaved families, we will observe one minute of silence.

The video recording of his speech shows the Jamia Masjid packed like never before. At least 3,000 persons overflowed its vast prayer grounds and listened to him in pin drop silence. When he asked for a minute’s silence, to pay homage to the victims and their families, the silence that followed was absolute. 

A few days later, chief minister Omar Abdullah gave an hour-long speech in the Vidhan Sabha on very similar lines. In the end, he made it clear that he would not raise the issue of full statehood with the Union government at this time but would wait till Kashmir, and the nation had had time to grieve. This too was received by the assembly  without a single murmur of dissent.

If Modi and Amit Shah ever needed proof that the Kashmiris are not rebels who wish to separate their state from the rest of India but only hanker for the full democratic rights and the trust that other states of India enjoy, they have all the evidence they need or could desire right now. Allowing the Army to take revenge upon the families of suspected terrorists who might have participated in or facilitated the massacre – by blowing up their homes – is the last thing it should be doing, for thousands of interrogations of slain militants’ families have shown that they have, more often than not, been unaware of their sons’ intentions until after they have disappeared. 

Asking the Army and Air Force to fashion their own vengeful reactions will not only gift moral victory to Pakistan but plunge India into a war that it may not lose but is still unlikely to win because of the close technological links and continuous supply lines that the Pakistan’s armed forces have built with the Peoples’ Liberation Army in China.

The Pakistan Army’s desire to create a Valhalla of nuclear flames into which it will drag India along with its own country, therefore, needs to be resisted. 

For New Delhi, the right response to Pahalgam is to use the money that would otherwise go into a useless and counterproductive surgical strike to help Kashmir and Kashmiris recover from this psychological and economic blow, and leave Pakistan to fry in its own fire.

Prem Shankar Jha is a veteran journalist.